Nonlinear Dynamics of Financial Crises: How to Predict Discontinuous Decisions
- Written by Ionut Purica, PhD – Romanian Academy
When just a handful of economists predicted the 2008 financial crisis, people should wonder how so many well educated people with enormous datasets and computing power can be so wrong. In this short book Ionut Purica joins a growing number of economists who explore the failings of mainstream economics and propose solutions developed in other disciplines, such as sociology and evolutionary biology. While it might be premature to call for a revolution, Prof. Purica echoes John Maynard Keynes in believing that economic ideas are “dangerous for good or evil.” In recent years evil seems to have had the upper hand. “Nonlinear Dynamics of Financial Crises” points to their ability to do good.
- Makes complex economics ideas accessible by carefully explaining technical terms and minimizing mathematics and equations
- Delivers easily-understood perspectives about the global economy by constructing broad assumptions and conclusions in the face of its infinitely complexity
- Challenges received economic ideas by focusing on human behaviour and the roles it plays in easily-observable recent trends and events
- Applies non-linear models to identify the moment of abandoning finance a given portfolio instrument and allows predicting the passage from boom to bust with advance time to react.
About the Author
Dr. Ionut Purica is a senior researcher in the Romanian Academy’s Institute for Economic Forecasting, and Executive Director of the Advisory Center for Energy and Environment. Dr. Purica was also a counselor of the Minister of Economy and previously the Minister of the Environment and an expert for the Parliament of Romania. He participated in the elaboration of the EU accession strategy for Romania and the energy (electricity and heat) strategy (for the Ministry of Economy and Trade) and did risk analysis and transaction structuring and project management with the World Bank, USEA, JBIC, MARSH, ITOCHU, MVV, etc.
Previously he worked as a project officer for energy and infrastructure in the World Bank, in Romania and the Balkans, being trained in project guarantees, value at risk, procurement to complete his expertise in engineering acquired as director for international projects of the Romanian Power Company RENEL and senior engineer managing a joint Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd-IMG-Bucharest quality engineering group for the manufacture of nuclear reactor components for the CANDU units in Romania. He worked also as an international researcher for ENEA Rome - the Italian Commission for Energy New Technology and Environment - and as an associate researcher at ICTP Trieste.
Dr. Purica has authored books in his field of expertise published by Imperial College Press, Academic Press, etc. and published articles in journals like Risk Analysis, IEEE Power Engineering Review, Foundations of Control Engineering, etc. He took his second PhD in economics, (the first one in Nuclear Energy Engineering), and he is also a Professor teaching a course in Risk management to masters of science in the Polytechnic University of Bucharest and Hyperion University.